Bankroll? I don’t need no stinking bankroll!
I think the GIF is a pretty accurate representation of how Week 1 DFS went in my challenge. For those of you who didn’t read along last year, I will recap the picks that I made and identify what worked and what did not.
Each week I have a target score in mind for contests. Last year it was 150 plus DFS points on Draft Kings. This year it is 120 plus- DFS points on FanDuel. FanDuel doesn’t have full point-per reception scoring and therefore scores are significantly lower. To attain this goal, we essentially are looking for a 2x return on value from each player we draft. The salary on FanDuel is 60,000 and historically 120 points will cash in roughly 70 percent of “cash games (50/50s, double ups, etc).” This week 120 wasn’t even close.
Why did that happen? The “chalk” all went nuts. “Chalk” is generally defined as a player who will have a high ownership percentage. Chalk comes in elite players in good matchups (read Alvin Kamara). Or players who are going to see an improved target share (read James Conner). Both of these players were suggested in the article. Unfortunately, the teams I actually built did not include them. Scores were as high as I have ever seen them this week. Many of the star players went nuts and that always catapults the points needed to cash.
Without further adieu: Here are the results from the bankroll challenge:
Starting Bankroll: $100
In Play $ 20
I settled on having full exposure to Saquon Barkley, Demaryius Thomas, and AJ green. Barkley was facing a tough Jaguars defense. The best way to attack the Jaguars defense is through the middle of the field and through the run game. I thought his ownership may be lowered because of the opponent. I also think his ownership cost will rise each week. Demaryius Thomas at under 6,000 felt like a steal. Emmanuel Sanders racked up a lot of DFS points, however, Thomas was serviceable. AJ Green was in a good match-up and returned decent value as well.
Mahomes through 4 TDs on 15 passes. Mariota, not so much. In a game that sputtered to completion he really struggled and eventually left with an injury. Injuries were a problem on my teams. Joining Mariota on the sidelines were Leonard Fournette and Doug Baldwin.
James Conner was an absolute monster. His numbers were also buoyed by having overtime. He was returning excellent value regardless. Engram, abysmal. Ditto for Seferian-Jenkins.
In a “normal week”, team one would’ve returned a decent value. Two was doomed with three players leaving with injuries. It’s a risk you take. Sometimes we are the bug and sometimes we are the windshield.
New Bankroll: $80
The Final Breakdown
Here’s a breakdown of how the players performed by position:
The colors denote the return on investment.
Green: 2.0x and above
Red: less than 1.4
Overall, not too bad. The only one who completely kills a team on a normal week is Mariota. He exited with an injury (albeit after not playing very well).
Well, one of two things happened at RB. Either really good, or really bad. No in-between really.
Only one red here is encouraging. Baldwin barely played. Unfortunately, I missed out on Tyreek Hill and Emmanuel Sanders.
Tight end was mostly a wasteland in the NFL this week. Gronk smashed, per the usual.
Well the Saints were really bad. I mean really bad. The Panthers were good, and the Ravens were excellent. The Ravens defense may have compiled even more, if they didn’t have to take their foot off the gas.
While my teams were not very good this week, all was not lost. The targets in the article were much better than my records indicate. Here is the optimum lineup that I could have created, using the player pool from last week. It wouldn’t have won any GPPs, but it would’ve been just fine. The players are there, I just have to do a better job of piecing them together.
Check back on Thursday night to see the selected plays for this week. As always, thanks for following along and follow all of the @purplereignshow writers on Twitter!