Last year, I wrote an article detailing the best plays on DraftKings for every week and attempted to complete a bank roll challenge. Good news, everyone! You can follow along with my missteps, mistakes, and hopefully wins this year too. A few small changes, this year we are teaming up and completing the challenge on Fan Duel. There are a few small differences between DK and FD. DraftKings offers bonuses for individual performances (100 yard bonuses for receiving/rushing and 300 yards passing) and full point per receptions. FanDuel does away with the bonuses and offers 0.5 points per receptions.
For those of you who didn’t follow along last year here are the basics(from last years iteration):
- I will start with 100 dollars for this challenge. I will keep a running tabulation in weekly articles that chart the fluctuations in the balance. (I will have a separate bankroll for weekly challenges with friends/shot taking/etc.) The goal is to increase this bankroll to 1,000 dollars by the completion of the NFL season.
- I will be completing this challenge using FanDuel. All salaries and suggestions will be listed using Fanduel pricing.
- I can only use a maximum of 20 percent of my bankroll in any given slate. I may reload if I drop below 30 dollars, it will be noted.
- Each week I will list plays that I like and will create teams using these players. I will not provide the lineups before the slate.
- After each slate, I will document what went well, what did not go well, and where we stand financially.
- Until I double my initial investment I will not play larger field GPPs.
- A large reason the ecosystem of DFS is so lopsided is because lineups are “set it and forget it.” Once you set all your lineups there is nothing to do to keep your teams performing optimally. In poker, I could make money in smaller stakes tournaments (5-22 dollars each) because the better players were playing the more expensive tournaments (55-10,000+). They then had to concentrate their efforts to make their stacks grow. It was not financially beneficial to them to play the smaller tourneys because they took time away from their more expensive tourneys. However, in DFS the best players register everything and tend to mop up the money. How will I combat this? First…
- I will play single entry tournaments. Only one entry per user.
- I will play 50/50s and double ups (roughly the top half wins)
- I will play smaller games with less than 20 participants.
- During the first week I have 20 dollars to spend. This will be distributed into 1 – 3 dollar games.
- I am hoping that by documenting this I will be able to hold myself accountable to making good decisions and not just fire into a bunch of tournaments. I hope you enjoy the ride.
Week 1 Musings:
Week 1 is an interesting time in DFS land. The sites attempt to get prices out very early and fill their marquee contests. This results in lots of obscene prices for players who win jobs, replace injured players, etc. Running back has value all over the place. A lot of these players will be super high owned in tournaments. For this reason, I may fade a lot of these guys for game theory reasons (For example, if 40 percent of players are on a particular player and they don’t have a good game you are in a good situation if you don’t have that poor performance)
My Favorite Plays of this Week
Deshaun Watson (8.2K) – I’ve been waiting all year for football and even longer for Watson to return from injury. New England’s defense, as a unit, are historically slow starters. Watson is blessed with an absolute monster in DeAndre Hopkins. Throw in the speedster Will Fuller V and let’s watch them shred. An additional bonus, Watson doesn’t mind to run and those points add up quickly in the fantasy realm
Marcus Mariota (7.2K) – The offense can’t be any more vanilla than it was last year in Tennessee. He runs well. He has weapons. Look for them to open up the playbook and let Mariota shine.
Joe Flacco (6.0K) – Priced with the backups. He is salary relief with great upside. The receiving core has been revamped. The O-line is healthy. I like pairing him up with Michael Crabtree or running him out there solo.
Others to consider: Pat Mahomes (6.7K). Andy Dalton (6.8K)
Leonard Fournette (8.0K) The Jaguars mantra appears to be “Don’t let Blake Bortles screw this up for us(not that I agree with that. Blake still has a special place in my heart)” The defense will keep them in low scoring games and Fournette will be the workhorse.
Saquon Barkley (7.6k) – I don’t believe I’m being hyperbolic when I say Barkley is matchup proof. He says he’s more than a running back and I’m inclined to believe him. The Giants will try and get the ball in his hands. If he is in open space, he is a legitimate threat to take it to the house from any distance.
Kenyan Drake (6.6k) – Adam Gase says he wants Drake to get 20 touches a game. DFS is a game of opportunity and Drake appears ripe for a lot of it.
Royce Freeman (6.0K) – Appears to have the stronghold on the Denver job,. Seattle is not scaring anyone this year. The rookie back looks in line for a lot of touches.
James Conner (5.0K) – I’d assume he will be the highest owned player by a wide margin in GPPs. He will be taking over for LeVeon Bell. He has been electric in the preseason and will have ample opportunities Week 1. He is obviously mispriced for his role in the offense.
Others to Consider: Matt Brieda/Alf Morris, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Rex Burkhead
A.J. Green (8.4K) – Should see a lot of Pierre Desir. News flash….Pierre Desir is not a very good cornerback.
Doug Baldwin (7.5K) – His injury was widely reported. He is now fully practicing. The Seahawks shouldn’t be very good. Look for them to get behind and it to be the Russell Wilson and Angry Douglass show.
Demaryius Thomas (7.0K) – Can a superstar become a post-hype sleeper? He hasn’t had a quarterback in years. Now he does, get in before his price gets adjusted to where it should be.
Michael Crabtree (6.6k) – No one is talking about Crabtree. He has the opportunity to put up big numbers and have a very low ownership. Edit: Weather in Baltimore will be suspect at best.
Others to Consider: Keenan Allen, Jarvis Landry, Keelan Cole, Phillip Dorsett
Evan Engram (6.0K) – Had the best rookie TE season in history. He is a matchup nightmare. The corners are great in Jax, look for them to attack through the RB and TEs.
Tyler Eifert (5.5K) – Remember when Eifert was the next best thing? He is finally healthy and ready to rebound.
Others to Consider: David Njoku (5.3K), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (4.6k), Rob Gronkowski (7.9K)
Ravens (4.8K) – They are the most expensive unit on FD. They are an opportunistic defense facing someone who threw 5 interceptions in one HALF last year. 5…picks…in…one…HALF
Others to Consider: Saints, Panthers,
That’s it for Week 1. As always Good Luck. Feel free to follow me on twitter and ask any questions you might have! @thebritteacher